Thanks for reading - agreed that I think there's so much speculation about what dramatic thing binarily will or won't happen but far less contemplating how and why things change on an individual level, trying to work it out through writing!
fantastic and prescient essay as always. my challenge with it comes down to how it will play out. Startups are one breed of company but think about financial services, CPG, industrial manufacturing where the hierarchy has already been pretty silo’d.
definitely true, selfishly more interesting to think about the model of white collar work we’re surrounded by, also think the focus is because CS being automated wasn’t on people’s bingo cards
This is already playing out in some technology roles. The blue collar work is annotating traces, collating data and testing. The white collar work is defining the behavior of agents and determine which model to point and where. Eventually more and more of the blue collared work gets automated. Just like what happened with manufacturing. First comes standardisation and then automation.
Yep, I think we’ve talked and structured about white collar work as too one-size-fits-all when it’s already been a spectrum susceptible to automation, the surprise is how good it got at coding but high level engineers will find other roles / work
“AI doesn’t eliminate surplus. It expands it and then concentrates who gets it.”
Yes, increasingly powerful technologies are a magnifier of wealth disparity. My preferred future is one where many people are the shareholders of the ever improving thinking machines. (The electrocuted sand lol)
The valuable skills will continue to be decision-making (judgement/taste), emotional fluidity, relationships.
Joe Hudson wrote an article on this last year. He calls it “emotional clarity, discernment, and connection”
Re: shareholders, agreed I think the economic implications are more concerning than the labor ones, we’ll figure what new jobs to do and where to focus our energy naturally, as we already are. Re: internal, I arrive at a similar conclusion
Another fantastic essay Anu. And the question about the middle in IT services, PMs, Programme Managers, Directors, is the one nobody is answering directly enough.
The coordination and deck-making part is gone, or going fast. Most people in those roles know it if they are honest with themselves.
Where I would add something though, the most underrated part of what good PMs and Directors actually do is room-reading. Knowing the CFO is quietly killing a programme before anyone says it officially. Knowing which VP needs to feel heard before anything moves. AI cannot do that. Not even close.
But not everyone in the middle was actually doing that. A lot were performing the appearance of it. Sitting in the right rooms, speaking with the right confidence. AI does not just automate the work, it exposes who was genuinely navigating versus who was just present while navigation happened around them.
Taste still differentiates. But in this layer it is really about whether you built real trust, real political capital, real accountability for outcomes. That is what is scarce now.
The room-reading is still human. But do you think the middle ever gets honest with itself about whether it was actually doing that, or does it just wait to be restructured out?
Love the thinking! Premium chases scarcity and everything else is simply the baseline. I've also heard it as AI making 7/10 a possibility everywhere, and therefore, you need to ask yourself where you can offer your 11/10. I guess it's what finance bros call "seeking alpha."
Overall quite true. Fire and rehire, or disband and regroup, is really what is going on.
Still can’t ignore that many skills and people who spent decades honing them are not going to be needed. The curve outruns demographic adaptation in a crazy way.
"Affiliation Arbitrage" is my favorite vocab of 2026. It already won the oscar in my heart.
for the erudite reader 🗣️
Poignant words!
You build a big picture and like a charming exhibitionist walk us through it. Great read.
Unfolding is an ongoing process but indulging ourselves in formed speculation is a creative exercise worth performing.
Thanks for reading - agreed that I think there's so much speculation about what dramatic thing binarily will or won't happen but far less contemplating how and why things change on an individual level, trying to work it out through writing!
I keep thinking about this same problem.
You may be interested in what I wrote here (https://consultingintel.com/p/i-still-think-ai-wont-steal-your-job) and here (https://substack.com/@themanagementconsultant/note/c-222815383)
wait what is the antidote in link #1?
fantastic and prescient essay as always. my challenge with it comes down to how it will play out. Startups are one breed of company but think about financial services, CPG, industrial manufacturing where the hierarchy has already been pretty silo’d.
definitely true, selfishly more interesting to think about the model of white collar work we’re surrounded by, also think the focus is because CS being automated wasn’t on people’s bingo cards
Thought provoking piece.
This is already playing out in some technology roles. The blue collar work is annotating traces, collating data and testing. The white collar work is defining the behavior of agents and determine which model to point and where. Eventually more and more of the blue collared work gets automated. Just like what happened with manufacturing. First comes standardisation and then automation.
Yep, I think we’ve talked and structured about white collar work as too one-size-fits-all when it’s already been a spectrum susceptible to automation, the surprise is how good it got at coding but high level engineers will find other roles / work
Nice piece as usual Anu
“AI doesn’t eliminate surplus. It expands it and then concentrates who gets it.”
Yes, increasingly powerful technologies are a magnifier of wealth disparity. My preferred future is one where many people are the shareholders of the ever improving thinking machines. (The electrocuted sand lol)
The valuable skills will continue to be decision-making (judgement/taste), emotional fluidity, relationships.
Joe Hudson wrote an article on this last year. He calls it “emotional clarity, discernment, and connection”
https://every.to/thesis/knowledge-work-is-dying-here-s-what-comes-next
After knowledge work is wisdom work
In post-abundance world the internal is the frontier
Re: shareholders, agreed I think the economic implications are more concerning than the labor ones, we’ll figure what new jobs to do and where to focus our energy naturally, as we already are. Re: internal, I arrive at a similar conclusion
White collar (laptop facing) the new blue collar
Blue collar the new gray collar (less susceptible to AI in the near time, but eventually susceptible)
Unemployed artists/musicians the new white collar (AI 'evals' on beauty are likely hurdle. Too many bayesian priors needed)
directional displacement makes sense, perennially curious about the economics of employment going forward
Another fantastic essay Anu. And the question about the middle in IT services, PMs, Programme Managers, Directors, is the one nobody is answering directly enough.
The coordination and deck-making part is gone, or going fast. Most people in those roles know it if they are honest with themselves.
Where I would add something though, the most underrated part of what good PMs and Directors actually do is room-reading. Knowing the CFO is quietly killing a programme before anyone says it officially. Knowing which VP needs to feel heard before anything moves. AI cannot do that. Not even close.
But not everyone in the middle was actually doing that. A lot were performing the appearance of it. Sitting in the right rooms, speaking with the right confidence. AI does not just automate the work, it exposes who was genuinely navigating versus who was just present while navigation happened around them.
Taste still differentiates. But in this layer it is really about whether you built real trust, real political capital, real accountability for outcomes. That is what is scarce now.
The room-reading is still human. But do you think the middle ever gets honest with itself about whether it was actually doing that, or does it just wait to be restructured out?
What an incredible read. I saw a screenshot on X of a paragraph of this article and knew I had to find the author. Glad I did.
Love the thinking! Premium chases scarcity and everything else is simply the baseline. I've also heard it as AI making 7/10 a possibility everywhere, and therefore, you need to ask yourself where you can offer your 11/10. I guess it's what finance bros call "seeking alpha."
great, another essay by anu that has me sitting alone in a cafe, making me think for myself hah
Overall quite true. Fire and rehire, or disband and regroup, is really what is going on.
Still can’t ignore that many skills and people who spent decades honing them are not going to be needed. The curve outruns demographic adaptation in a crazy way.
This is fantastic