1. X Communities. These are underrated but growing
2. Meta Quest app development…. If we will all be dreaming to get the Vision Pro, and if (for most) the use of AR won’t be for work, but for play, most will buy a cheaper Quest (especially if it becomes the android for AR, and gets better)
3. Snapchat — still a frontier bc my eighteen year old cousin and all her friends are still obsessed and it iterates like mad
4. Neuralink patient no.2
5. Digital detox communities / becoming a Very Offline person — this is going to be the counterculture to the Very Online world (see companies like Unyoked and Unplugged)
6. Whatever comes after TikTok (pray not facebook)
7. Substack? — the crowd is here lol
8. Probably still X?
Do you have any Anu? Mine are quite obvious, maybe it’s easier to identify where the crowd has *already* shown up
It feels like many of the ‘before the crowd shows up’ things today are about coming offline, since we have been flooded (quickly) with an online life. Sure, being an early adopter for VR and AI is epic, but there is a queue for both of them — or it seems as much — and the other categories i would bucket into ‘unplugging’, as in going offline, digital detoxing, IRL communities… These changes are generally more fragmented, less scalable — less visionary — and simpler. The returns to being early to a digital detox or IRL meet-up are negligible. Does it represent some kind of shift away from ‘big utopia dreams’ where everyone is plugged in for everything (perhaps only Zuck holds this vision), and in trend is to the opposite. Do more people think, “well GPT-6 helps me run my startup, instead of world domination I’ll simply, with all that spare time, learn to surf in Sri Lanka….” — After my sabbatical I will be picking a niche, so this is all v front of mind. I agree that it’s about finding something you care about, and niching.
I have a theory that beautiful countries with great food and weather will become the new arena, as people stuck in ancient ways (eg, work from office) start moving out of the workforce (and dying).
Why would you live in a sh*t place when you could live in a nice one?
Rings true. Experiencing that in a community right now, though it’s teetering on the edge of no longer being early. But by joining early, and volunteering to help organize, it’s had an outsized impact on my life and career. Not why I joined and volunteered, but that’s definitely been the impact. I get the sense that if you try to game this concept, it won’t work. You don’t get to be early in arenas without being earnest.
Lot of truth there, I think there’s a small contingent on people who are really good at this and much less dependent on their earnestness, but for the majority it’ll naturally align with your interest since it’s likely that’s why you found it / sought it out. Maybe more important point is that new things shouldn’t be avoided just because unproven because the flip side is outsized opportunity.
"Everyone who arrives at an arena early is suspended in a time and space of possibility — and suspended from the usual judgments — for a little bit. And this is when your “surface area of luck” is at its peak."
Because the community is smaller and by nature denser, there is more surface area of luck? Is it the increasing surface area of luck or just our ability to feel the effects of it thanks to density?
Great piece. It was interesting to see how people approached the launch of Threads as a new arena — over the first several days active posters treated it as they did early Twitter or Instagram. However, since Threads was launched in the back of the Instagram social graph, the tactics weren’t as successful. Many imported existing follow/follower bases so that ‘noise’ trumped the organic growth of the arena.
Hard not to succumb to the bright shiny object syndrome. My arena right now it aging well, stepping out of the aging as decline model to the Age with Attitude! model and making every day count.
"it’s easy to think you’re already late to an arena even when it’s still so early." -- gold! i feel like i always get into this trap of thinking i'm late to the game. but looking back, i realize it wasn't late and regret to sticking through. also substack is a great arena; regardless of which stage it's in, love the type of crowd it attracts (thoughtful & intellectual). great read, anu!
SooOooOoOoOooOo here are some ideas.
1. X Communities. These are underrated but growing
2. Meta Quest app development…. If we will all be dreaming to get the Vision Pro, and if (for most) the use of AR won’t be for work, but for play, most will buy a cheaper Quest (especially if it becomes the android for AR, and gets better)
3. Snapchat — still a frontier bc my eighteen year old cousin and all her friends are still obsessed and it iterates like mad
4. Neuralink patient no.2
5. Digital detox communities / becoming a Very Offline person — this is going to be the counterculture to the Very Online world (see companies like Unyoked and Unplugged)
6. Whatever comes after TikTok (pray not facebook)
7. Substack? — the crowd is here lol
8. Probably still X?
Do you have any Anu? Mine are quite obvious, maybe it’s easier to identify where the crowd has *already* shown up
good list :) i wrote about some in my 24 themes for 2024 post, but zooming out more i’d say:
health + work + community + entertainment
any big evolution in these categories is incredibly valuable to be early to, matter of finding the ones you care about and niche down
hard tech + climate + space etc. aren’t my wheelhouse though there’s huge value in it, it’s not really end-consumer value any time soon (decades)
It feels like many of the ‘before the crowd shows up’ things today are about coming offline, since we have been flooded (quickly) with an online life. Sure, being an early adopter for VR and AI is epic, but there is a queue for both of them — or it seems as much — and the other categories i would bucket into ‘unplugging’, as in going offline, digital detoxing, IRL communities… These changes are generally more fragmented, less scalable — less visionary — and simpler. The returns to being early to a digital detox or IRL meet-up are negligible. Does it represent some kind of shift away from ‘big utopia dreams’ where everyone is plugged in for everything (perhaps only Zuck holds this vision), and in trend is to the opposite. Do more people think, “well GPT-6 helps me run my startup, instead of world domination I’ll simply, with all that spare time, learn to surf in Sri Lanka….” — After my sabbatical I will be picking a niche, so this is all v front of mind. I agree that it’s about finding something you care about, and niching.
Keep writing — it’s great.
I have a theory that beautiful countries with great food and weather will become the new arena, as people stuck in ancient ways (eg, work from office) start moving out of the workforce (and dying).
Why would you live in a sh*t place when you could live in a nice one?
this, though i think we see staggered movements based on what socioeconomic strata you are in today
This is really well written, feels like exactly what's been on my mind lately
glad it resonates 🤝
So new arenas everyone?! What are they
Good work, Anu! I'm enjoying these posts.
tysm
LOVED this!
thanks Abhishek!
Superb metaphor 🙌
coming from the framework guy?? win :)
Rings true. Experiencing that in a community right now, though it’s teetering on the edge of no longer being early. But by joining early, and volunteering to help organize, it’s had an outsized impact on my life and career. Not why I joined and volunteered, but that’s definitely been the impact. I get the sense that if you try to game this concept, it won’t work. You don’t get to be early in arenas without being earnest.
Lot of truth there, I think there’s a small contingent on people who are really good at this and much less dependent on their earnestness, but for the majority it’ll naturally align with your interest since it’s likely that’s why you found it / sought it out. Maybe more important point is that new things shouldn’t be avoided just because unproven because the flip side is outsized opportunity.
"Everyone who arrives at an arena early is suspended in a time and space of possibility — and suspended from the usual judgments — for a little bit. And this is when your “surface area of luck” is at its peak."
Because the community is smaller and by nature denser, there is more surface area of luck? Is it the increasing surface area of luck or just our ability to feel the effects of it thanks to density?
Great piece. It was interesting to see how people approached the launch of Threads as a new arena — over the first several days active posters treated it as they did early Twitter or Instagram. However, since Threads was launched in the back of the Instagram social graph, the tactics weren’t as successful. Many imported existing follow/follower bases so that ‘noise’ trumped the organic growth of the arena.
Hard not to succumb to the bright shiny object syndrome. My arena right now it aging well, stepping out of the aging as decline model to the Age with Attitude! model and making every day count.
"it’s easy to think you’re already late to an arena even when it’s still so early." -- gold! i feel like i always get into this trap of thinking i'm late to the game. but looking back, i realize it wasn't late and regret to sticking through. also substack is a great arena; regardless of which stage it's in, love the type of crowd it attracts (thoughtful & intellectual). great read, anu!